In addition to leaving the stability of the Government in very considerable doubt, the election result leaves the direction and timetable of the Brexit negotiations, of fundamental importance to the UK economy, entirely up in the air. Perhaps a damaging – as we see it – ‘hard Brexit’ is now less likely, but the situation will be fluid for a while to come.
Markets have so far reacted to this by marking down the value of Sterling and the suggestion by some commentators is that UK interest rates are set to stay at rock bottom levels for even longer. We concur with this, at least while large scale taxation, spending and borrowing policies remain off the table.
The falling pound further boosts the value of equity investment for UK savers, this applying to overseas funds as well as to the bulk of larger UK companies who derive most of their profits from their overseas activities. It is for this reason that the FTSE100 rose by over 1% once the election result was known: therefore, we continue to overweight equities in portfolios.
Budget 2024